Validation and governance

The following indicators can support assessment; none mechanically proves a particular price increase.

Factor	Evidence to publish	What it establishes
Adoption	Repeat economic users and genuine transactions; exclude self-transfers.	Whether people actually use QTC.
Demand	Independent completed purchases and executable bids.	Willingness to buy at observable prices and sizes.
Security	Sustained mining work, independent operator concentration and technical reviews.	Evidence relevant to network resilience.
Supply	Verified issuance, holdings, concentration and unlocks.	Potential dilution and selling pressure.
Liquidity	Committed buying funds, order depth and execution at different sizes.	Whether holders can sell meaningful quantities.

A proposed validation process

Define the model in advance. Publish its purpose, formulas, input sources, sample windows, exclusion rules and treatment of missing or stale data.
Separate observation from judgement. Identify measured facts, estimated inputs, discretionary weights and scenario assumptions. Proposed factor weights are not established valuation coefficients.
Test predictive claims on later data. Fit any predictive model using earlier observations, then assess it on data not used in fitting. Report errors, sensitivity and unsuccessful predictions.
Publish balanced scenarios. Include flat and declining conditions as well as growth. Revise assumptions when evidence weakens; do not force the model to preserve an upward path.
Obtain independent review. Check data integrity, supply definitions, calculations, liquidity funding and conflicts of interest. Keep dated review results and a methodology change log.

Published methodology, data quality, oversight and accountability are central themes in the IOSCO benchmark principles. This proposed framework has not been assessed for conformity with those principles. [2]

Present status: the price curve is a scenario calculator. It does not yet derive prices from verified trading, network activity or reserves. An audit can verify calculations and evidence; it cannot certify future appreciation.